California voters began casting ballots this week on Proposition 50, a redistricting measure that could reshape the state’s congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Voting closes on Nov. 4.

The measure, introduced by Gov. Gavin Newsom, proposes to replace the state’s independently drawn district maps with new ones created by the state legislature. The proposition is a direct response to the federally-backed redistricting efforts held in Texas last August, designed to win Republicans five extra seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

If passed, new legislatively-drawn maps would override the current state one until 2030, giving Democrats up to five additional seats in the House of Representatives.

After the midterm elections, Prop. 50 could help flip the current Republican-controlled House of Representatives, which could weaken the Republican control of all three branches of the federal government.

Justin Levitt, a Loyola Law School professor and former senior advisor to the U.S. President on Democracy and Voting Rights from 2021 to 2022, said that while historical trends favor Democrats to win control of Congress in 2026, the outcome remains uncertain.

“Right now, you would have to think that the Democrats are favored to win control of the House back in 2026,” Levitt said. “But an awful lot can change between now and November. So nobody can tell you that for sure.”

A Shift from Citizen Redistricting

Mid-decade redistricting is rare, but California’s unique redistricting laws complicate the matter. Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego, said California’s district maps, unlike most states, are drawn by an independent citizen commission.

“It was the first state to create this truly true-to-citizens redistricting commission,” Kousser said. “Because of that, Democrats have held out California as a model for national reform, but they’re now in a position of having to undo part of the work of that commission in order to meet other goals of the party.”

Because the commission was established via constitutional amendments in 2008 and 2010, it can only be altered through another public vote, Levitt said unlike Texas and other states, California’s redistricting ultimately rests in the hands of its people.

“The same process that Californians used to put the commission into power is the one they have to use to change it,” Levitt said. “That’s amending the state constitution.”

Support and Opposition

Proponents of Proposition 50 — including the California Labor Association, NAACP and former president Barack Obama — say the measure is necessary to counteract partisan gerrymandering in other states and level the playing field in Congress.  

Meanwhile, opponents of the proposition, such as the California Republican Party, former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and some members of the original redistricting commission, argue the measure is a partisan power grab that undermines California’s “gold-standard” voting reforms. 

Senior Elsa Lagerblad said although she acknowledges the proposition’s partisan gerrymandering, she thinks the measure may be a necessary countermeasure.

“(If other states redistrict), that would basically guarantee a Republican majority in the Senate and in the House, which would then lead to a lot of bills being passed that don’t actually represent the will of the American people,” Lagerblad said. “If one side starts doing gerrymandering, then the other side has to respond or else the other side just becomes so uncompetitive that they will never be able to compete.”

Recent polling by Emerson College and the research firm co/efficient suggest that a majority of Californians support Prop. 50. Lagerblad said she believes most voters understand the temporary nature of the proposal. 

“Although people won’t like it, I feel like most people will get that this isn’t a permanent departure from the redistricting commission structure, because the proposition isn’t permanent,” Lagerblad said. “Some people will begin to lose trust because they’ll feel like this is a power grab by politicians.”

A Domino Effect?

Critics argue even if Prop. 50 is temporary, it could set a dangerous precedent by legitimizing mid-decade, politically motivated redistricting in other states. 

Although passing Prop 50 might give some states a bigger excuse to redraw their lines, Levitt said, the states currently considering such moves — including Missouri, Illinois and Indiana —  are not waiting on California to act.

“I don’t know who would say they are acting because of what California is doing, as opposed to sort of once the first shot went, a whole bunch of states decided that they want to consider it too,” Levitt said. “The states that are considering redrawing their lines right now are now considering redrawing their lines even if Prop 50 doesn’t pass.”  

Impact on Young Voters

Regarding the Paly community, Lagerblad said most students overlook the importance of legislation in general, and Prop. 50 is especially important because it determines who represents them in Congress.

“Honestly, a lot of teenagers probably think they have better ways to spend their time than thinking about legislation,” Lagerblad said. “That’s a problem. More young people need to be educated about what’s going on around them. They need to be having these open dialogues with adults … because, again, the consequences of this proposition will affect every single American.”